Since there are six games left and each game ends in one of two ways, there are 22222*2 = 64 possible ways that the group stage could end. The boxes below each team how that team would advance in each scenario. Red boxes indicate elimination, orange a tie-breaker match and green advancement, with higher guaranteed seeds shown with darker shades.
SKT, currently 7-1, is almost locked into the 1st seed and would have to drop both its matches today and tie-breakers to lose it.
There are only two ways that WE, currently 5-3, could drop to 4th seed. In every other scenario, SKT and WE are on opposite sides of the playoff bracket.
The remaining four teams, all 3-5, have much foggier futures with roughly even chances of getting the 3rd/4th seed or getting eliminated today. There are some slight variations - G2 has a winning record against the other teams at the bottom of the bracket, so it has slightly more ways of advancing. GAM is the only one that could get a 2nd seed because of its winning record against WE.
Looking at SKT, the left column is all dark green - so a win locks in their top seed.
Both columns of WE are identical. This indicates that the game has no impact on their standings.
The 10 green boxes on G2’s left column show that even if they start their day with a loss to SKT they could still advance. The additional green boxes on the right are paths to advancement that open up with a win. Note that there are still some red boxes on the right; even if G2 beats SKT they might not advance! Mouse over the boxes to see some ways that could happen.
GAM fans should cheer for SKT: G2 picking up a game could push them into a tie-breaker or even elimination.
GAM should root for FW; a TSM loss unlocks four tie-breaker scenarios for them.
If G2 thinks FW will beat GAM later, they should root for TSM against FW. If they think GAM will beat FW, they should root for FW against TSM. Group play is weird! G2 is up 2-0 against FW and will advance over them if they finish with the same record. If G2 and FW both win one game and lose one game, G2 will advance over FW.
A WE win also helps TSM a lot, G2 a little bit and has a mixed impact on FW.
If FW has lost its game to TSM, they should root for GAM to set up a potential 3- or 4-way tie. If FW has won, they won’t want GAM to win - if GAM also beats FW later, GAM could take the 4th place spot from FW.
TSM is playing another game against one of the bottom four teams so this game isn’t as important to them, at least on paper. If they win one/lose one, they have a reasonable shot at advancing. I’ll keep these charts updated as matches are played - check back to see if this game changes into a must-win for TSM.
FW loses ties to G2, so they want TSM to win.
Depending on how earlier games go, TSM fans might be cheering for FW to keep their team out of a tie-breaker match.
It is possible that SKT might want to consider throwing the game to WE in order to get a semis draw against GAM or TSM.